State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D) is projected to win the special election for California’s 14th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ. Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez, the president of the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Board, to fill the remainder of the term vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). The victory comes after Wahab led Hernandez by 26 percentage points in the initial June primary for the special seat.
The vacancy occurred after Swalwell resigned his House seat following sexual assault allegations, which he has denied. Before his resignation, Swalwell had also withdrawn from the California governor's race. Wahab and Hernandez emerged as the two candidates for the special election after the primary results were certified.
The campaign was marked by significant outside spending, totaling approximately $5 million. The United Democracy Project (UDP), a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), spent $2.5 million to support Hernandez and oppose Wahab. Additionally, Bold America spent $1.8 million in favor of Hernandez, while the Safer Alameda County PAC spent nearly $500,000. Conversely, American Priorities and the J Street super PAC each spent roughly $100,000 to support Wahab.
The scale of the financial impact is significant for a single House district, with outside groups investing more than $5 million in a special election to fill a seat for only a partial term. For the voters, the immediate change is the restoration of active representation in Washington, D.C., which had been absent since Swalwell's resignation. Residents will see Wahab cast votes on federal legislation and provide constituent services through the end of the year, at which point the seat will be filled for a full two-year term.
The election also established a precedent for the upcoming November general election, where Wahab and Hernandez are scheduled to face off again for the full term. The legal and regulatory environment surrounding the race remains active; Wahab has filed an FEC complaint regarding social media posts her campaign calls defamatory, while a supporter of Hernandez filed a complaint alleging improper fund transfers between Wahab’s state and federal committees. Wahab will be sworn in to serve the remainder of the term following the certification of the results, with the next contest between the two candidates set for November.