Internal documents from Amazon indicate the company projects its own delivery network will handle nearly 90% of its U.S. package volume by 2029. The forecast, reviewed by Business Insider in late July, suggests the company is accelerating its transition away from traditional external carriers. According to the planning document, Amazon’s delivery network is expected to manage 86.3% of U.S. packages in 2027 and reach 88.7% by 2029.
This transition marks a shift from Amazon’s previous estimates, which projected first-party delivery rates of 83.8% for 2027. In 2023, the company reported delivering over two-thirds of its own U.S. packages, the last time it publicly disclosed these figures. The internal forecast estimates the company's network will handle approximately 12.2 billion packages in 2027, rising to 15.8 billion by 2029.
The company's expansion includes its "Sub Same-Day" network, which is projected to grow from 17.1% of first-party volume in 2027 to 21.3% in 2029. Additionally, Amazon has committed more than $4 billion to triple its rural delivery network by the end of 2026. An Amazon spokesperson stated that these internal projections are preliminary, subject to revision, and do not represent finalized plans.
The scale of this transition reduces the share allocated to traditional carriers. For the USPS, the forecast projects its share of Amazon packages will drop from 10% in 2027 to 8% by 2029. A new contract signed in April 2026 reduced the USPS minimum volume to 1.27 billion packages, a 19% decrease from the previous agreement. UPS is also seeing a reduction, having decided to cut the volume it handles for Amazon by more than half by the second half of 2026 due to lower profitability. By 2029, UPS is projected to handle 1.4% of Amazon’s U.S. volume, or roughly 250 million packages per year.
For consumers, the company is testing faster shipping windows and "Project Kobe," which involves exploring stores that could serve as pickup points. It is also developing "Project Tetromino," an automated delivery station designed to speed up processing. While the company assumes it will renew its USPS contract when it expires in 2029 due to "mutual dependency," the broader trend indicates that Amazon is seeking greater control over its logistics chain.