Analyst Julia Ioffe of Puck News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to exploit a divide between the United States and Ukraine regarding strikes on Russian oil refineries. According to Ioffe, both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian government have attempted to frame the other as the primary obstacle to President Donald Trump’s goal of ending the conflict.
The report follows a long phone call on a Friday between President Trump and President Putin. Yuri Ushakov, a foreign policy adviser to Putin, stated that neither leader wanted to be the first to end the conversation, characterizing the call as warm. Ioffe noted that following this interaction, President Trump repeated several positions aligned with the Kremlin’s talking points.
A central point of tension involves a potential diesel agreement between the U.S. and Russia. While the specific terms and certainty of the deal were not reported, Ioffe stated that the revenue for the Russian federal budget would not be large after taxes. However, she noted the agreement could undermine the logic of the existing sanctions regime, which was originally established to penalize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Furthermore, the Trump administration has reduced levels of military and economic aid to Ukraine since 2025. This includes reported reductions in intelligence sharing and the throttling of Starlink satellite services. Ioffe noted reports that Ukraine has run out of Patriot missiles as the U.S. has not provided additional units.
For U.S. taxpayers and the global energy market, the potential diesel agreement marks a shift in trade policy. Ioffe stated that the deal would suggest the U.S. requires Russian petroleum despite the ongoing conflict, potentially validating Putin’s claim that Western nations remain dependent on Russian energy. The move could signal to other international partners that the strict sanctions regime is being eased, even though Russia has not changed the behavior that triggered those sanctions.
What happens next depends on the ongoing diplomatic friction between the U.S. and Ukraine. President Trump has publicly criticized President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, referring to him as "PT Barnum" and describing him as ungrateful. The source did not report specific upcoming vote dates, court deadlines, or a scheduled effective date for the diesel agreement. As of now, the administration continues to limit aid while maintaining a direct line of communication with the Kremlin.