U.S. employer healthcare costs are projected to increase by 9.5% in 2027, according to a report released Thursday by insurance broker Aon. This increase is expected to bring the average cost per employee to more than $19,000, assuming companies do not implement new cost-saving measures or benefit changes.
The forecast follows a trend of high growth in medical spending. Aon reported that healthcare costs for employers are on track to rise by nearly double digits for the fourth consecutive year by 2027. This trend is attributed to several factors, including a rise in chronic conditions, an increase in high-cost medical claims, and greater overall utilization of healthcare services by patients.
Specific drivers of these rising costs include specialty medicines and GLP-1 treatments, which are used to treat diabetes and obesity. Additionally, Aon noted that the adoption of new technologies by healthcare providers, such as artificial intelligence for clinical documentation and coding, has contributed to higher billed charges in some cases.
For the year 2026, Aon estimated that employers will cover approximately 82% of health-plan costs. The average cost to employers is projected to rise 8.8% to $14,432 per employee in 2026, while total plan costs are expected to reach $17,562. The analysis was based on data from more than 1,100 U.S. employers covering 7.9 million employees and representing $135 billion in spending.
The scale of this shift is significant, as the data represents nearly 8 million covered lives and over $135 billion in healthcare spending. For small and large business owners, the projected 9.5% rise in 2027 means budgeting more than $19,000 per worker to maintain current benefit levels. If employers choose not to absorb these costs, employees may notice changes such as higher monthly deductions from their paychecks or increased fees when visiting doctors and pharmacies.
Aon consultants stated they expect many employers to introduce cost-saving programs or benefit changes to mitigate these increases. These adjustments could lead to new care-management programs or restricted coverage options for certain medications, such as the GLP-1 drugs cited as a primary cost driver. While the current projections assume no changes to existing plans, the final impact on worker paychecks and benefits will depend on how individual companies respond to these rising figures leading into 2027.