Republican election law attorney Ben Ginsberg stated Monday that President Trump’s executive order restricting mail-in voting could negatively affect Republican voter turnout. Ginsberg noted that the order’s limitations on mail-in ballots may particularly impact elderly and rural voters, groups that traditionally support the Republican Party.
The statement follows a recent Supreme Court decision that allowed the administration to proceed with the policy for the time being. The Court issued an unsigned order determining that legal challenges brought by Democratic states were premature, ruling that the states currently lack standing because the order has not yet imposed legal requirements on them.
President Trump’s executive order includes a provision requiring states to submit a list of eligible voters to the U.S. Postal Service. Under this rule, the Postal Service would be prohibited from distributing mail-in ballots to any individuals not included on that specific list. The administration moved forward with a legal appeal on Tuesday to lift a nationwide block on these restrictions.
The scale of the impact involves the entire national mail-in voting infrastructure. While specific figures for the number of voters affected were not reported, the order would require every state to interface with the U.S. Postal Service regarding their voter rolls. According to the Supreme Court majority, Section 3 of the order directs the Postal Service to begin proposing rules that "might bind the States in the future," though it noted that no final rule has been implemented yet. A person affected by this would notice changes in how they receive their ballot, as they would now need to be verified against the federal list provided to the Postal Service before a ballot is sent.
Ginsberg suggested that Republican operatives at the state level are concerned that these barriers will result in lower turnout for their candidates. The knock-on effects could influence the outcome of upcoming elections if large segments of "low propensity" or elderly voters find it more difficult to cast ballots. What happens next depends on the ongoing legal process; the Trump administration's Tuesday appeal seeks to permanently remove lower court blocks, while the Supreme Court has indicated the matter could return to the judiciary once the executive branch issues final rules.