Austin Rogers is projected to win the Republican primary for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ. Rogers, a former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), emerged from a crowded field of candidates on Tuesday to secure the nomination. He is running to succeed Republican Rep. Neal Dunn, who announced in January that he would retire after serving five terms in Congress.
The 2nd District covers the eastern portion of the Florida Panhandle and includes the state capital, Tallahassee. The seat is currently considered a Republican stronghold; the Cook Political Report rates it as "solidly Republican." Retiring Rep. Dunn won all but one of his five elections by more than 20 percentage points, and Donald Trump carried the district by 18 points in the 2024 presidential election.
Rogers previously served as a legal staffer for the Senate Judiciary Committee and clerked for U.S. District Judge Steven D. Merryday. Since launching his campaign in January, Rogers has reported loaning his bid $375,000 and had approximately $387,000 in cash on hand as of late July. On the campaign trail, he has pledged to support and implement the agenda of the Trump administration.
The scale of the financial investment in this open seat is significant for a local race, with Rogers personally providing $375,000 to his own campaign. For a typical household in the district, this single-candidate loan exceeds many years of median income, highlighting the high cost of entry for open-seat congressional contests. Voters in the eastern Panhandle will notice a shift in constituent services and legislative priorities as Rep. Neal Dunn, a 72-year-old member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, concludes his decade-long tenure and a new representative takes office in January 2027.
The result also reinforces the influence of internal Republican party alignments in Florida. Rogers' background as an aide to Sen. Rick Scott and his vocal support for Donald Trump's agenda suggests the district's representation will remain closely aligned with the current national Republican leadership. This election was held under a congressional map drawn by the Florida Legislature earlier this year, which left the 2nd District's boundaries unaltered. Rogers will now move to the general election on November 3, 2026, where he is expected to face a Democratic challenger in a seat that election handicappers do not currently consider competitive.
The general election will take place in November. If Rogers wins, he will be sworn into the 120th Congress in January 2027. Rep. Neal Dunn will remain in office until his term officially expires at that time. No further primary runoffs are required for this seat.