Australian fire authorities warned on Wednesday that nearly every state and territory faces a heightened risk of bushfire this spring. The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) released a seasonal outlook identifying elevated risks starting in September for all regions except the Australian Capital Territory. The council attributed the forecast to dry conditions in eastern Australia and significant vegetation growth, or "fuel loads," in central and northern areas following recent wet seasons.
The warning follows the Bureau of Meteorology’s June declaration of an El Niño event, which the agency stated has the potential to become the strongest on record. El Niño typically results in reduced rainfall for eastern Australia and higher temperatures in the south. AFAC Chief Executive Rob Webb stated that while some areas face elevated risk, fires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook, urging communities to prepare early based on local conditions.
In the Northern Territory, Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Andrew Warton noted that heavy vegetation growth from recent floods has created high-risk areas south of Timber Creek and Borroloola. Despite forecasts of above-average rainfall in the territory this spring, officials expect the grass to dry out and become flammable. In New South Wales, Deputy Commissioner Ben Millington of the Rural Fire Service highlighted that regions affected by the 2019-2020 bushfires have seen enough regrowth to support fire activity again, particularly after an unseasonably warm winter with below-average rainfall.
Specific high-risk zones include the northern tablelands and the far south coast in New South Wales, as well as East Gippsland and areas west of Geelong in Victoria. The outlook also flags north-east and eastern Tasmania, south-east Queensland, and parts of Western Australia. Experts, including Professor David Bowman of the University of Tasmania, warned that "flash droughts" caused by heatwaves could rapidly dry out landscapes, potentially leading to high-intensity fires if the current El Niño pattern persists into the summer months.
For the average household in identified high-risk zones, such as the northern tablelands of New South Wales or East Gippsland in Victoria, this forecast translates to immediate maintenance tasks and emergency planning. Fire officials are instructing residents to clear gutters, remove overhanging branches, and establish bushfire survival plans before the spring season begins in September. These preparations are intended to mitigate the risk of property damage that previously reached billions of dollars in insurance claims during the 2019-2020 period.
The heightened risk also impacts local government resources and emergency services, which must manage "fuel loads"—the accumulation of dry grass and wood—that have grown thick following previous floods. The potential for a "strong" El Niño, combined with the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, could lead to sustained drying trends that affect agricultural yields and water management policies through the end of 2026. Authorities have not set a specific end date for the elevated risk, but the current seasonal outlook remains in effect through the three-month spring period starting in September.