Voters in Berlin are scheduled to participate in state elections on Sunday, September 20, 2026, amid polling that shows increased support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Recent data suggests the party is within 2.5 to 3.4 percentage points of the leading parties in the German capital. This election follows a recent vote in the state of Saxony-Anhalt where the AfD achieved success, contributing to what analysts describe as momentum for the party.
The AfD is currently classified by German intelligence as a right-wing extremist organization. Its platform in Berlin emphasizes housing policy, favoring native-born citizens, and opposing programs related to diversity and gender equality. While migration remains a central theme, including calls for "remigration," the party’s local campaign has also focused on municipal issues such as rent and education.
Current polling averages from dawum.de place The Left party in the lead at 21%, followed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right CDU at 20.1%. The AfD is polling at approximately 18%, a significant increase from the 2023 election when it trailed the leaders by 19.1 points. Meanwhile, the center-left SPD is polling at 12.2%. Analysts suggest the AfD is attracting voters from the CDU who are dissatisfied with fiscal policies regarding the debt brake, as well as young and previously undecided voters reached through social media.
The scale of this shift is reflected in the polling data, which shows the AfD polling at 18% compared to the 2023 results, while the SPD has seen its support decline. The election serves as a test of the "firewall," an informal agreement among mainstream German parties to refuse coalitions with the AfD. If the AfD secures a substantial vote share, it may complicate the formation of a stable majority government, potentially forcing traditional rivals into broader coalitions to maintain the exclusion of the AfD from power.
The outcome will also set a precedent for German national politics. While a mock election of 40,000 under-16s in Berlin last week showed only 5.8% support for the AfD, the party's success in Saxony-Anhalt and its current polling in the capital indicate a broader appeal. Following the vote on September 20, official results will determine the distribution of seats in Berlin’s state parliament.