California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Monday, September 21, 2026, as forecasters warned of a strengthening El Niño event that could be the most intense on record. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a 69% probability that this cycle will exceed the strength of all El Niño events recorded since 1950. The climate pattern, driven by above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, is expected to peak between late fall 2026 and winter 2027.
The emergency declaration comes as satellite imagery shows rising sea levels moving north toward California. The state is projected to experience record-high tide levels during the winter, compounded by a natural 18-year astronomical high-tide cycle known as King Tides. Scientists from the University of California, Santa Cruz, noted that El Niño conditions typically increase Pacific storm wave energy by 30% to 50%, which can lead to significant coastal erosion and flooding.
Meteorologists reported that sea surface temperature anomalies have already exceeded 2 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. While NOAA officially classifies the event as "very strong," many researchers use the informal "super El Niño" label for episodes of this magnitude. Experts cautioned that while strong El Niños are correlated with heavier precipitation in the American Southwest, the exact track of Pacific storms remains difficult to predict, as evidenced by the 2015-2016 event which produced less rain than the 1997-1998 season.
Beyond California, the climate cycle will likely influence travel plans and regional economies across the United States throughout the winter of 2026-2027. Travelers to the Southwest, including Phoenix, Arizona, may face flight delays due to rain, while those in the northern U.S. may see a lack of snow for recreation like ice fishing. Conversely, the ski industry in the Intermountain West, particularly the Wasatch Mountains in Utah and the California Sierra Nevada, typically sees increased snowfall during these cycles. Residents in the Southeast and Gulf Coast states may face an increased risk of severe weather, including tornadoes and infrequent snow.
The broader impacts extend to global agriculture and food security, as El Niño typically shifts rainfall patterns, causing potential droughts in Indonesia and Australia while increasing flooding risks in western South America. The simultaneous influence of record global ocean temperatures and subsurface heat reservoirs suggests these effects could manifest differently than in previous decades. State and federal agencies will continue monitoring ocean buoys and atmospheric observations to update seasonal forecasts. The emergency declaration in California remains in effect to facilitate preparation for the anticipated peak of the cycle in late 2026.