Voters in California’s 14th Congressional District will cast ballots Tuesday in a special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell. Two Democrats, State Sen. Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez, advanced from a June 16 special primary to compete for the seat, which covers parts of the East Bay.
The vacancy occurred four months ago following Swalwell's resignation from Congress. His departure came amid sexual assault allegations that ended his campaign for governor; Swalwell has denied the allegations. Because both candidates are Democrats, the party is certain to retain the seat, though the outcome will determine the exact margin of the current Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Wahab finished first in the June 16 special primary, leading Hernandez by more than 20 percentage points. While Hernandez has doubled Wahab's fundraising and spending, FEC records show the candidates had roughly equal cash on hand by the end of July. The race has seen approximately $4.1 million in outside group spending since mid-July, with $3.7 million favoring Hernandez and roughly $400,000 favoring Wahab.
For the residents of Alameda County, the transition involves two distinct phases due to a 2025 redistricting measure known as Proposition 50. The person elected on Tuesday will serve under the current district boundaries for the rest of 2024. However, both Wahab and Hernandez are also competing in the November general election for a full term starting in January 2027, which will use slightly redrawn boundaries. Under the new map, Democratic registration will shift slightly from 50.4% to 49.7%, a change that represents a difference of a few thousand voters in terms of partisan concentration.
The scale of financial involvement is significant for a special election, with outside groups like the AIPAC-backed United Democracy Project and Bold America spending a combined $2.9 million to support Hernandez and oppose Wahab. Voters will see the results of this spending in their media and mail leading up to the Tuesday deadline. Following the 8 p.m. PT poll closure, the Alameda County Registrar will begin tallying ballots, 98% of which were cast by mail or absentee in the primary. The Associated Press will declare a winner once the data shows the trailing candidate cannot close the gap, though there is no automatic recount provision under California law.