A recent poll indicates that California voters are divided over Proposition 40, a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5 percent tax on the net worth of the state's billionaires. The survey, conducted by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, and released on Friday, found that 48 percent of voters support the measure while 41 percent oppose it. Approximately 11 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Proposition 40, titled the Billionaire Tax Act, is scheduled to appear on the California ballot in November. The measure is designed to target approximately 200 billionaires residing within the state. The poll revealed that 72 percent of voters are already aware of the initiative, a figure pollsters described as unusually high for the summer months preceding an election cycle.
Opinions on the tax are largely split along party lines. The poll found that 70 percent of Democrats support the measure, while 80 percent of Republicans are opposed. Among voters who are not affiliated with a political party, 50 percent expressed support and 39 percent expressed opposition.
The measure could set a precedent for wealth-based taxation at the state level, particularly as pollsters noted that opponents of the plan intend to spend heavily in the coming months to prevent its passage. This spending could influence the broader advertising market and political landscape in California leading up to the general election. The concrete day-to-day impact for the vast majority of California's nearly 40 million residents would not be a change in their personal taxes or paychecks, but rather in the potential funding levels for state programs, though the specific programs to be funded were not named in the source.
What happens next depends on the November general election results. If California voters approve Proposition 40, the state would move forward with implementation. The exact effective date and the administrative process for assessing the net worth of the 200 targeted individuals are not yet known. Campaigns both for and against the measure are expected to intensify their efforts throughout the fall.
The same Berkeley poll also surveyed broader economic sentiments, finding that Democrats hold a 6-point lead over Republicans regarding economic issues two months before the midterm elections. Nationally, a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll reported that President Trump's approval rating dropped 2 percentage points over a two-week period. Additionally, a survey found that nearly 25 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 believe their financial situation has worsened since he returned to office.