China’s National Climate Centre has issued a forecast for a "super El Nino" that could potentially become the strongest ever recorded. According to state broadcaster CCTV on Tuesday, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to rise steadily and reach their peak between November and December.
The forecast follows a summer of weather extremes in China attributed to El Nino effects, including torrential rain and high typhoon activity. Last week, Typhoon Dolphin moved across the Pacific for two weeks before making landfall and bringing heavy rainfall to eastern, central, and northern regions of the country.
The United Nations weather agency previously updated its own forecast in July, noting the rapid emergence of a strong El Nino. The agency warned that the phenomenon is likely to contribute to higher global temperatures in the coming months.
For ordinary citizens, the forecast suggests a continuation of the concrete day-to-day disruptions seen during the summer, including flooded streets in cities like Zhengzhou and Henan province. Residents may face prolonged periods of wind and rain that interfere with transportation, as evidenced by reports of overlapping rain belts that compound the severity of local disasters. The anticipated peak in sea temperatures in late 2026 suggests these risks will remain elevated through the end of the year.
The emergence of a "super El Nino" creates knock-on effects for global climate policy and emergency management. As the UN weather agency noted, the phenomenon is expected to drive global temperatures higher, potentially influencing international energy markets and agricultural yields. In China, the government must manage the immediate costs of disaster relief and infrastructure repair following high-intensity typhoons. The next significant indicators will be the recorded sea surface temperatures during the projected peak months of November and December.