Democrats are focusing on gubernatorial elections in the 2026 midterms as a primary method to balance federal policy under President Trump. While congressional races often receive the most attention, 36 governorships are scheduled for election this year. Currently, Republicans hold 26 governorships compared to 24 for Democrats.
The focus on state leadership follows several legal and executive actions where governors opposed federal directives. Governors in Illinois, Minnesota, and California blocked the deployment of federal troops to cities, while a coalition including New Jersey successfully sued to stop an executive order ending birthright citizenship. Additionally, 20 states and the District of Columbia blocked attempts by the administration to withhold federal funds from states that did not follow specific orders.
Of the 36 seats up for election, 18 are held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. Analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report indicates nine Democratic incumbents are favored to retain their seats, including governors in New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Open seats in California, Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, and New Mexico are also categorized as likely to remain with Democrats. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) won a recent primary, while Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) leads in current polling.
The scale of campaign spending in these races is already reaching high levels, as seen in Ohio, where Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has reportedly spent at least $25 million of his own funds. A shift in the partisan majority of governors could alter the national landscape of policy implementation, as governors have the authority to join or opt out of multi-state lawsuits against federal executive orders. This can lead to variations in how federal laws are applied depending on a resident's state of residence, impacting everything from citizenship documentation to environmental regulations.
What happens next depends on the primary and general election cycles throughout 2026. In Ohio, Democratic nominee Dr. Amy Acton is currently tied in polls with Ramaswamy. In Texas, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is in a statistical tie with state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D), according to recent polling. The final composition of the nation's governors will be decided on Election Day in November 2026, which will determine if Democrats can surpass their current 24-seat minority.