Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and former Rep. David Jolly, who switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party, are projected to face each other in the Florida gubernatorial election this fall. According to Decision Desk HQ, both candidates secured their respective party nominations on Tuesday to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.
Donalds won the Republican primary by defeating 10 other candidates, while Jolly won the Democratic primary against five other contenders. Donalds has represented a Southwest Florida congressional seat since 2021 and previously served in the state House. Jolly served in the U.S. House from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican before becoming an independent in 2018 and later joining the Democratic Party.
The general election comes as Florida Republicans have maintained a long winning streak in statewide contests. The last time a Democrat won a statewide race in Florida was in 2018, and the state has not elected a Democratic governor in more than 30 years. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, currently rates the race as "solid Republican."
The scale of the competition was reflected in the primary fields, where a total of 17 candidates sought the two major party nominations. While the Democratic party has recently won some individual seats previously held by Republicans, the party faces a historical deficit, having not won the governorship since Lawton Chiles's 1994 reelection. For the individual voter, the outcome will influence state-level policies on taxes, education, and healthcare beginning in early 2027.
Beyond the immediate leadership change, the race serves as a test of Florida's current status as a Republican stronghold versus its former reputation as a swing state. The winner will manage a state that has produced multiple national political figures and remains a key focus for both parties. The general election is scheduled for this fall, and the winner will replace the term-limited incumbent following the expiration of his second term.
What happens next: Following these projected primary victories, Donalds and Jolly will move to the general election phase. The source did not report the specific date of the general election or the date of the gubernatorial inauguration. The Cook Political Report will continue to monitor the race, which they currently categorize as unlikely to be competitive for the Democratic nominee.