Government documents obtained by a watchdog group show that early federal projections following the 2023 train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, estimated thousands of residents could face exposure to hazardous chemicals. These initial models, created shortly after the incident, projected significantly higher risks of injury and death from chemical exposure than subsequent government reports suggested.
The February 2023 derailment involved cars carrying vinyl chloride, a chemical used in plastic production that can break down into phosgene and hydrogen chloride. In the days following the accident, officials ordered a mandatory evacuation of the area near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border.
According to documents released by the Government Accountability Project, the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) projected one day after the derailment that 17,972 people could be exposed to phosgene and 312 to hydrogen chloride at levels capable of causing "severe injury." The same model estimated that 1,901 people could be exposed to phosgene and 185 to hydrogen chloride at levels that could "possibly result in death." A spokesperson for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated that these initial figures represented an "absolute worst-case scenario" and that updated models showing lower risks were shared with state and local officials as more data was collected.
The disclosure also impacts the transparency standards of federal agencies like the EPA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). A FEMA spokesperson stated that communities deserve "timely, accurate, and transparent information" regarding hazardous materials, while describing the delayed release of these documents as a "cover up" by the Biden administration. The Government Accountability Project reported that it required six Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and a whistleblower declaration to obtain these maps, suggesting that residents may have returned to their homes without full knowledge of the government's initial hazard projections.
The information sets a precedent for how the federal government manages "worst-case scenario" modeling during industrial accidents. The EPA maintains that it remained transparent by providing updated, data-driven information via meetings and its website, but critics argue the initial high-risk maps should have been disclosed immediately. Moving forward, the EPA continues to provide long-term monitoring information to residents, though no specific new deadlines or court dates regarding these document disclosures were reported.