An analysis by The Associated Press on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, found that voter turnout is increasing in several states that will likely determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. With two weeks remaining before Election Day, data shows a rise in early in-person ballots cast and absentee mail-in ballots returned compared to the 2022 midterm elections.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% compared with 2022, while it has more than doubled in Kansas. Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio have seen increases of more than 30%.
The trend follows efforts to adjust voting regulations. In California, Colorado, and Nevada, voters will decide on ballot measures that would require residents to include driver’s license or partial Social Security numbers on mail-in ballots. These proposals were placed on the ballot through petition signatures collected by activists after the respective Democratic-led legislatures did not pass such requirements.
In addition to the voter ID measures, voters in several states are weighing approximately 30 different ballot questions related to election policy. These initiatives represent about 20% of all state ballot measures nationwide this year. The increased early participation comes as both parties compete for a governing majority, with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries stating in an interview after a Sunday church service that his party is "on the verge" of winning control of the House.
The surge in early voting affects election officials and millions of voters in states with competitive Senate races. While the sources did not provide a specific total for the number of ballots cast nationwide, they noted the increase is significant relative to 2022 figures. For voters in the three states facing voter ID referendums—California, Colorado, and Nevada—a "yes" vote would change the requirements for mail-in voting, requiring personal identification numbers to be provided in future elections.
The turnout levels may also influence how campaigns allocate their remaining resources. In Iowa, Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson is scheduled to appear with the president at a rally in Sioux City on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers held their final debate on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, ahead of planned visits by former President Barack Obama on Saturday and the current president on Sunday.
The outcome of these contests will determine the legislative agenda for the remainder of the presidential term. According to an AP-NORC poll released this week, 8 in 10 registered voters identifying the lowering of the cost of living as a top priority. The same poll found that roughly 7 in 10 voters want Congress to prioritize ending the war in Iran. Depending on which party secures the Senate, the federal government may move toward these goals or toward objectives such as investigating or supporting the current administration's agenda.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Following the election, the party that secures at least 51 seats will assume control of the Senate.