Nationwide early voting for the 2026 midterms has reached between 13 million and 23 million ballots, depending on the tracking source, as participation increases across several states with competitive Senate races. Data indicates that registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters are casting ballots at higher rates than Republicans compared to the 2022 midterm cycle. According to an analysis by Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer, North Carolina has seen a 37 percent increase in accepted ballots from 2022, driven by a 47 percent rise among Democrats and a 60 percent rise among unaffiliated voters.
This surge comes amid a shift in the political landscape following the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" last year. The legislation, supported by many congressional Republicans, includes provisions to reduce federal Medicaid funding by hundreds of billions of dollars and introduces mandatory work requirements for certain enrollees. Democratic candidates in states like Alaska, Maine, and Ohio have made these cuts a central theme of their campaigns, while Republican candidates have emphasized a $50 billion rural health transformation fund included in the same law to support local hospitals.
In Texas, where Democrats are seeking their first statewide victory in over three decades, early voting is up 74 percent from 2022, with nearly 1 million ballots cast two weeks before the November 3 election. While Texas does not register voters by party, Decision Desk HQ modeling estimates that 44.3 percent of early ballots came from Democrats and 43.7 percent from Republicans. In Kansas, early voting participation has more than doubled, reaching 55,000 ballots compared to 27,000 at the same point four years ago.
The scale of the reported turnout involves millions of voters and billions of dollars in campaign spending. In Ohio alone, spending on the Senate race is expected to approach $500 million. Voters are expressing specific economic concerns; an AP-NORC poll found that 80 percent of respondents want the next Congress to prioritize lowering prices. This is particularly relevant as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" reduced federal health reimbursements, leading to reports of hospital service reductions, such as the elimination of labor and delivery services at one facility in Maine. Voters will notice the impact of these policies through changes in their insurance eligibility, the availability of local medical services, and the cost of healthcare premiums.
While Democrats currently show a turnout advantage in early data, political strategists note that Republicans historically participate more heavily on Election Day. Republican strategist Alex Patton cautioned that early trends may reflect changing habits rather than final results. The Democratic Party needs a net gain of three seats to take control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate path requires flipping four seats due to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance. Following the close of early voting windows, final results will be determined on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026.