Economists and climate experts report that a strengthening El Niño cycle in the Pacific Ocean is expected to increase the cost of tropical commodities, including coffee, chocolate, and palm oil. The weather phenomenon, which features higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures, is forecast to peak during the fall and winter of 2026. These climate-driven disruptions are occurring alongside existing supply chain pressures related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region.
El Niño typically alters global precipitation patterns, leading to droughts in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa, while causing heavier rainfall in parts of South America and the United States. In Brazil and Vietnam, significant shifts in precipitation have already impacted coffee-growing regions. Meanwhile, Indonesia is experiencing a drought that has triggered wildfires on peatlands, affecting the production of palm oil, a key ingredient in cosmetics, biofuels, and various food products.
Agricultural experts indicate that while the United States is unlikely to face overall food shortages due to its domestic production capacity, consumers will likely see higher prices for specific goods through 2027. Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, stated that global food prices are already rising due to trade barriers and energy costs. He noted that drier-than-average monsoon seasons have already reduced rice harvests in India, while wheat production in Australia is projected to be lower than usual.
The scale of the impact is most acute in eastern and southern Africa, where maize is a critical staple crop. Villoria reported that maize prices in these regions could spike by approximately 20% due to El Niño-related droughts or flooding. In these areas, where communities are often disconnected from international trade markets, such a price increase—amounting to a one-fifth increase in the cost of a primary food source—can lead to localized food security crises. This affects millions of people who have less financial resilience to absorb sharp increases in the cost of basic nutrition.
Beyond immediate grocery costs, the phenomenon sets a precedent for how climate variability interacts with global trade policy. Christopher Barrett, a food economist at Cornell University, described trade as a "release valve" for weather shocks, but noted that current trade barriers and high fuel costs for shipping limit this effectiveness. As the El Niño reaches its forecast peak in late 2026, the international community will monitor export restrictions, such as those potentially affecting Indian rice, which could further drive up global prices. The full extent of the price changes will depend on the severity of the weather and how individual nations adjust their trade policies in early 2027.