The election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its ratings for three U.S. Senate, four gubernatorial, and three U.S. House races toward Democrats on September 22, 2026. Managing editor Kyle Kondik attributed the changes to a "persistently poor national environment" for Republicans approximately six weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. The shifts move several contests into the "Toss-up" category, while others moved from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."
The rating changes follow a period where Republicans held a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats currently seek a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to retake majorities in both chambers. Decision Desk HQ currently forecasts a 53 percent chance for Democrats to take the Senate and a 71 percent chance to take the House. The shifts also come amid polling in specific states, such as Kansas, showing a close divide between candidates and a 40 percent approval rating for President Trump.
In the Senate, the Iowa race moved from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up" as state Representative Josh Turek (D) faces Representative Ashley Hinson (R) for the seat of retiring Senator Joni Ernst (R). In Kansas, the race between Senator Roger Marshall (R) and Adam Hamilton (D) moved from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican." In Michigan, the handicapper moved the race to succeed retiring Senator Gary Peters (D) from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic," naming Abdul El-Sayed (D) a "soft favorite" against former Representative Mike Rogers (R).
The scale of this shift involves seven states—Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Florida—where gubernatorial or Senate seats are being contested. In the House, the changes affect districts in Florida, Iowa, and Texas, including the redrawn 9th District in Texas. In Ohio and Nevada, the shift to "Toss-up" status for governor suggests that executive leadership and state-level policy on issues like education and local taxation are no longer predictably Republican. For an individual household, the result of these elections on November 3 will determine which party sets the agenda for federal spending and oversight for the next two years.
The knock-on effects of these rating changes may influence future polling, campaign fundraising, and party platform adjustments as candidates in conservative-leaning areas, such as North Carolina and Alaska, attempt to distance themselves from national party leadership. By shifting these races "to the left," the handicapper sets a precedent for the 2026 midterms that national factors, such as the economy and presidential approval, are weighing on local Republican candidates. What happens next are the final weeks of campaigning leading up to the November 3 general election, which will finalize the makeup of the 119th Congress and state executive offices.