Energy experts report that Venezuela’s claim of 303 billion barrels in proven oil reserves is likely based on inflated data. Half a dozen analysts interviewed by The Associated Press estimate the actual figure for proven reserves—defined as oil that can reasonably be extracted under current conditions—is between 60 billion and 120 billion barrels. While this remains a significant amount, it would remove Venezuela from its position as the world's largest holder of oil reserves.
The 303 billion figure has been a central component of a recent agreement announced by the administration of President Donald Trump in August 2026. Under the deal, the United States would take control of 17 oil fields through a joint venture between the U.S. and Venezuela-based North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP). The Trump administration asserted the U.S. would control 65 billion barrels of reserves, a volume intended to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and lower gas prices that rose during a war with Iran.
Analysts state that the 65 billion barrel estimate is inconsistent with current recovery rates. Francisco Monaldi, an oil expert at Rice University, estimated that only 10 billion to 15 billion barrels in the affected fields could be classified as proven reserves in the short term. Evanan Romero, a former Venezuelan energy official, described the 65 billion figure as an "absolute lie," noting that technical challenges in the Orinoco Belt wilderness have led some firms to abandon the fields due to the difficulty of extracting thick, heavy crude.
The accuracy of these figures affects U.S. energy policy and the financial expectations regarding gas prices and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If the expert estimates are correct, the U.S. is gaining access to fewer barrels of oil than the 65 billion barrels reported by the White House.
The dispute over these numbers impacts U.S. and international investors considering entry into Venezuela’s oil industry. Because the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) has operated with limited financial transparency since the administration of Hugo Chávez, private firms face risks regarding the return on their investments. In the Orinoco Belt, where recovery rates are estimated at 5% to 8%, extraction requires expensive advanced technology that may not be profitable if the underlying reserve data is unreliable.
The White House has not yet disclosed the specific calculations used to reach its 65 billion barrel figure. As the term of Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez expired in July without scheduled elections, the legal and economic stability of these oil agreements remains uncertain. Separately, a judge has ordered President Trump to sit for a deposition in a defamation lawsuit by the BBC by December 11, 2026.