New FBI data shows that violent crime in the United States decreased by 9.3 percent between 2024 and 2025, the largest single-year decline recorded since 1936. Researchers and officials have proposed several potential reasons for the drop, ranging from demographic shifts and changes in substance use to the increased use of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic.
The recent decline marks the second consecutive year of substantial decreases following a spike in crime during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. According to the FBI, murder and non-negligent manslaughter fell by 18.1 percent, robbery decreased by 18.5 percent, rape fell by 7.6 percent, and aggravated assault dropped by 7.2 percent. These figures represent a reversal of the trends seen in 2020 and 2021.
Possible explanations for the lower crime rates include a reduction in drug and alcohol use since the pandemic and the impact of an aging national population. Leonard Adam Sipes Jr., a former senior statistics specialist for the Justice Department, told Axios that the declining number of young people in the U.S. is a contributing factor. Additionally, researchers are examining whether the rise of GLP-1 drugs has played a role; Axios reported these medications have clinical links to improved impulse control and decreased alcohol abuse, both of which are factors in violent offenses.
During a visit to a New York police academy earlier this month, President Donald Trump attributed the declines to his administration’s use of National Guard troops in cities like Washington, D.C., and Memphis, Tennessee. However, Sipes noted that crime also dropped in cities where the National Guard was not deployed, stating there is little evidence to support the claim that those aggressive measures were the primary cause of the nationwide trend. While law enforcement agencies have increased their use of AI tools, Sipes added it may be too early to measure their specific impact.
The research into GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic introduces a new variable for public health and safety policy. If clinical links between these medications and improved impulse control are confirmed to influence societal behavior, it could lead to future discussions regarding the intersection of healthcare and crime prevention. Currently, the impact is described by researchers as a potential factor alongside more traditional explanations such as an aging population—where fewer individuals fall into the younger age brackets historically associated with higher crime rates—and shifts in substance consumption.
What happens next will involve further analysis of 2026 data to determine if the multi-year downward trend continues. Law enforcement agencies are expected to continue integrating AI technology, though experts like Sipes indicate that a clear assessment of that technology’s effectiveness is still pending. The FBI typically releases its annual consolidated crime reports following the conclusion of the calendar year, which will provide the next major benchmark for tracking these trends and the effectiveness of various federal and local interventions.