Republicans in Florida are preparing for more competitive midterm elections as polling shows narrowing leads for GOP candidates in several statewide contests. Former U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) described the current political atmosphere as similar to 2018, when Democrats flipped 41 House seats during President Donald Trump’s first term. Republican state Sen. Don Gaetz stated that any candidate with a Democratic opponent should be concerned given current polling data.
The shift follows recent polling from St. Pete Polls indicating that the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate contest are currently tied. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds is facing Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman. For the U.S. Senate, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is challenged by Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon. Additionally, The Cook Political Report adjusted its rating for the Florida governor’s race from "solid" Republican to "likely" Republican, citing the strength of the Democratic ticket.
President Trump’s favorability in Florida has declined by 10 percentage points since January, reaching 46 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable in June, according to Global Strategy Group. Some Republican officials have expressed concern over internal party stability, with one anonymous county chair describing the party as "hemorrhaging." In response, RNC spokeswoman Delanie Bomar highlighted the Republican party's 1.5 million registration advantage in the state, stating that the "numbers don't lie."
President Trump is scheduled to campaign in Florida, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska throughout October to support GOP candidates. These visits come as some Florida Republicans publicly dissent from White House policies. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) recently released a campaign commercial criticizing the administration’s mass deportation program, stating that Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024 now "feel betrayed." Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and other Iowa Republicans have also publicly broken with the president over the war in Iran.
The scale of the contest is reflected in the campaign finances, where Rep. Byron Donalds has raised nearly $121 million—more than 10 times the amount raised by Jolly. Despite this financial disparity, the narrowing polls suggest that even significant spending may not guarantee a victory. For voters, the immediate impact includes an influx of campaign advertising, such as Rep. Salazar’s commercials criticizing federal immigration enforcement. Residents will notice the arrival of high-profile figures like President Trump and Vice President JD Vance as they attempt to shore up support in traditionally safe districts.
This election serves as a test for whether the Republican voter registration lead, which grew from a Democratic advantage of 263,269 in 2018 to a Republican lead of over 292,533 by 2022, can withstand shifts in voter sentiment regarding the economy and foreign policy. The results will set a precedent for the 2028 presidential cycle, particularly for Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose allies view a large victory as a necessary platform for a future national campaign. Election Day is scheduled for November, with President Trump’s expanded rally schedule beginning on October 3.