Global weather forecasters have observed a strengthening El Niño pattern that may develop into a "very strong" event during the fall and winter of 2026-27. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported a greater than 90% probability of this intensification, which typically increases global temperatures and alters rainfall patterns. These conditions pose risks to agricultural production, specifically tropical "soft" commodities such as cocoa, coffee, and sugar.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, occurring every two to seven years. The current weather cycle coincides with existing economic pressures on farmers, including high fertilizer and diesel prices attributed to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. While the pattern causes droughts in parts of Asia and Africa, it often brings heavy rainfall to South America and the United States.
Agricultural analysts report that cocoa output has decreased during every strong El Niño event over the last 55 years. In West Africa, which produces half the world's cocoa, previous cycles have caused both excessive rainfall and extreme heat, leading to crop diseases and failed harvests. Robusta coffee yields in Vietnam and Indonesia are also at risk due to expected heat and dryness, while sugar production in India may face its lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years.
The scale of the impact involves millions of metric tons of agricultural output across multiple continents. In India, a moderate El Niño could reduce sugar production by approximately 1 million metric tons, while the combined robusta coffee output of Vietnam and Indonesia—which accounts for 50% of the world's supply—could be significantly trimmed. Farmers in these regions face direct threats to their livelihoods, as the weather pattern disrupts the crop development phase, which for coffee typically begins in the middle of the year and affects harvests starting in the fourth quarter.
Beyond immediate price hikes, these weather patterns set precedents for global market instability and food security. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center's forecast suggests the most acute effects will be felt during the northern hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. While some regions, like Brazil, might see short-term benefits such as reduced frost risk for coffee, the long-term outlook for 2027 output remains uncertain. Market participants and consumers will likely monitor rainfall data from India's June-to-September monsoon and West African weather reports throughout the end of 2026 to gauge the severity of supply shortages.