Former National Security Adviser John Bolton stated Wednesday that the Trump administration’s current strategy in Venezuela has not led to a change in government leadership beyond the removal of Nicolas Maduro. According to Bolton, while a Jan. 3 military raid successfully seized Maduro, the underlying political structure remains under the control of the Chavista party, now led by acting President Delcy Rodriguez.
The shift in leadership followed a period of domestic instability in Venezuela, including severe earthquakes in June that caused the collapse of government-constructed buildings. The country has also experienced significant power outages, matching levels seen during a 2019 national grid failure. While the Trump administration has encouraged American investment in Venezuela’s petroleum sector, Bolton reports that major U.S. oil companies have refrained from re-entering the market due to concerns over infrastructure and the lack of a legal framework for investment.
Bolton noted that President Trump has praised Rodriguez, referring to her as a "terrific person," and has revoked previous U.S. sanctions while blocking federal investigations into her activities. However, Bolton and other observers, including the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, have characterized the progress toward democratization as insufficient. They cite the continued influence of Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and the presence of his "colectivo" groups as evidence that the administrative apparatus of the previous government remains intact.
A resident or business in Venezuela would notice the continued daily impact of power outages and the lack of basic infrastructure repairs despite the change in top leadership. Small-to-medium-sized U.S. drillers attempting to enter the market report that the state-owned oil monopoly maintains an "iron grip," making it difficult to establish new operations. The knock-on effects include a ceiling on petroleum exports that affects global supply, particularly as the ongoing Iran war increases demand for Venezuelan crude.
The next steps in the U.S.-led strategy remain focused on potential elections, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not yet secured a timeline or terms for such a vote. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remains a central figure, having presented her Nobel Peace Prize to President Trump, though she has currently been excluded from official negotiations. The U.S. intelligence community is also tasked with verifying the withdrawal of Cuban security agents from the country, a condition Bolton argues is necessary for a stable transition. No specific deadlines for these actions have been reported.