Former Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George warned in late December that the U.S. military faced a shortage of missile defense munitions that would likely persist until 2030. According to U.S. officials familiar with the matter, George issued this assessment two months before the start of the current war with Iran, which is now in its seventh month. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth removed George from his position in April, while the conflict was underway.
The warning was included in the Pentagon’s Global Force Management Allocation Plan, a classified annual order that determines how troops and weapons are distributed globally. Officials speaking on the condition of anonymity stated that the shortage was driven by the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion, the use of munitions to defend Israel, and a diminished capacity within the U.S. defense industrial base.
Specifically, the assessment identified low strategic stockpiles of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors. While the U.S. maintains significant inventories of offensive weapons like Small Diameter Bombs, the defensive systems required to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles have been depleted. Estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicate that the U.S. may have consumed up to 61% of its Patriot inventory and 82% of its THAAD inventory during the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell disputed these reports, calling claims of munitions shortages false and stating that the U.S. maintains "everything required to strike at the time and place of the President's choosing." However, CSIS data shows that replenishing these systems is a multi-year process. It currently takes defense contractors four years and five months to deliver new THAAD interceptors and three and a half years for Patriot PAC-3 orders.
For the U.S. military and taxpayers, this represents a gap between current operational needs and industrial capacity. A single THAAD battery requires 90 soldiers to operate, and without interceptors, these units cannot fulfill their primary mission of protecting critical infrastructure and troops from aerial threats. Mark Cancian of CSIS noted that these specific munitions are the primary tools the U.S. would rely on in a potential conflict with China. If current expenditure rates continue, or if new conflicts emerge, military commanders in the Indo-Pacific and European commands may see their allocated defensive resources shifted to active combat zones, as occurred in April 2025 when a Patriot battalion was moved from the Pacific to the Middle East.
Recovery of these stockpiles is projected to be a slow process. Even if the U.S. stops firing these missiles immediately, one official stated it would take until 2030—the midterm of the next presidential administration—just to return to the "strategically low" levels seen in late 2025. While contractors like Lockheed Martin plan to quadruple THAAD production from 96 to 400 units annually, the long lead times for specialized components mean these increases will not be felt immediately. The U.S. has requested more than 800 THAAD interceptors for fiscal year 2027, but with zero deliveries expected for the remainder of 2026, the military faces a multi-year window where its ability to defend against simultaneous regional threats remains dependent on a limited supply.