Tropical Storm Moke approached Hawaii on Saturday, marking the second time in two weeks that the state has faced a tropical cyclone. As of 5 a.m. ET, the storm was located 545 miles southeast of Hilo with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Forecasters expect the center of the storm to pass south of the Big Island, though it is predicted to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to areas still recovering from Hurricane Lala.
The recent increase in storm activity is attributed to El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific. According to meteorologists, El Niño reduces the natural barriers that typically protect Hawaii, such as cooler waters and strong upper-level winds that generally weaken approaching storms. While Hawaii typically averages only one storm within 300 nautical miles per season, this year has already seen two, with a third considered probable by the National Weather Service.
Hurricane Lala, which occurred just one week prior, resulted in significant damage despite its center remaining offshore. That storm produced more than three feet of rain in certain windward areas, leading to flash floods and landslides. The weather event caused at least one fatality, cut off small communities, and damaged homes and infrastructure on the southern end of the Big Island. Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at the National Weather Service, described the two-week period as unusual, noting that atmospheric steering currents are currently aligned toward the islands.
For individuals in the affected areas, the concrete day-to-day change involves a disruption to recovery efforts and the threat of additional flash flooding and wind damage. Residents may face further closures of critical roads, like Ka'alaiki Road which saw debris flows on August 17, and potential renewed loss of utility services. Those still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Lala—including those in the Hilo area—will have to prepare for Moke's arrival on the heels of a storm that has already claimed at least one life.
The increase in storm frequency sets a precedent for the remainder of this El Niño season, as the state has already reached twice its typical annual average of close-approaching storms. This pattern also has knock-on effects for national weather trends, as El Niño conditions that increase Pacific storm activity simultaneously suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic. While Moke is moving west-northwest as of August 22, the National Weather Service notes that steering currents could shift in the future to provide a reprieve. No specific deadline for the end of the current threat was reported.