U.S. House Republicans are preparing for a potential leadership contest between Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) if the party loses its majority in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Interviews with three dozen Republican lawmakers and senior aides indicate a widespread expectation that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may not seek the role of minority leader in the event of a defeat, despite Johnson’s recent suggestion to CBS News that he might continue leading the conference.
The potential leadership change comes as Republican candidates face a difficult political environment, with President Donald Trump experiencing his lowest-ever approval ratings. While Speaker Johnson has raised $526 million for House Republican campaigns and a major super PAC this cycle, many members are skeptical he would remain in leadership if the party is relegated to the minority. Scalise and Jordan have both refrained from publicly acknowledging a leadership race, with Scalise stating that anyone focusing on the minority leader's office is "not focused on the right things."
Jordan, 62, currently serves as the Judiciary Committee chair and has previously run for leadership twice, losing a minority leader bid in 2018 and a speaker bid in 2023. Scalise, 61, has served as the No. 2 Republican leader for nearly eight years, contributing $24 million to fellow Republicans and traveling with 203 candidates this cycle. Some members, speaking anonymously, suggest the conference may seek "fresh blood" rather than existing leadership if a "wipeout" occurs on Tuesday, though others point to Jordan's history of combative relationships with colleagues as a hurdle.
Other potential candidates mentioned by lawmakers include Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the current No. 3 Republican, and Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX). Emmer has stated he intends to run for party whip—the No. 2 position in the minority—regardless of the election outcome. The role of President Trump remains a variable, as he recently endorsed Johnson for reelection but has not commented on the post-election leadership structure.
The outcome affects the political standing and resources of individual House members, as leadership roles control committee assignments and the distribution of millions of dollars in campaign funds. For rank-and-file members, particularly those in competitive districts, the leadership's ideological direction can influence their ability to distance themselves from or align with national party platforms. In past leadership contests, such as the 2023 speaker election, the process resulted in weeks of legislative inactivity during the transition period.
The formal selection process is scheduled to move quickly following the general election. Candidates have until November 6 to declare their intentions, with the internal Republican conference election set for the following Tuesday. While the speaker of the House requires a majority of the full chamber, the minority leader is chosen by a simple majority vote within the Republican conference. This means the next leader will need to secure a majority of their own colleagues to lead the opposition in the next legislative session.