Hurricane Polo fluctuated in intensity off the southwestern coast of Mexico on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The U.S. National Hurricane Center reported that the storm’s maximum sustained winds reached 180 mph on Tuesday before decreasing to 155 mph by early Wednesday, placing it just below the 157 mph threshold for Category 5 status. While the storm is not expected to make landfall, it is forecast to skirt the shoreline and bring tropical storm conditions to the region.
The storm is currently situated approximately 185 miles off the coast of Zihuatanejo in the state of Guerrero. Forecasters noted that Polo was nearly stationary early Wednesday, moving northward at just 2 mph. The hurricane is the second strongest on record in the Eastern Pacific in terms of central pressure, trailing only Hurricane Patricia in 2015, and is tied for the third strongest in terms of wind speed.
The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. Parts of Guerrero and Michoacán are expected to receive between 3 and 6 inches of rain, with localized amounts of up to 8 inches possible through Thursday. AccuWeather meteorologists indicated that while the storm will likely weaken over cooler waters, its moisture could reach the Southwestern United States by next week.
The scale of the storm involves hurricane-force winds extending 40 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds reaching 105 miles outward. For those in the warning areas, rainfall totals translate to significant accumulations over a short period; for example, up to 8 inches in specific spots. This weather event follows recent flash flooding in south-central Arizona where motorists required air rescues, suggesting that any additional precipitation in those areas could further strain local emergency services and infrastructure.
What happens next: Tropical storm conditions are expected to develop in the warning areas on Wednesday and in the watch areas by Thursday. Forecasters will continue to monitor the storm's path as it heads northwest toward the Baja California peninsula. While the system is expected to lose intensity over cooler waters, meteorologists are watching for a moisture surge into the U.S. Southwest around Monday, September 28, or Tuesday, September 29. No direct landfall is currently forecast for the Mexican mainland or the United States.