India is on course for its weakest monsoon season in nearly two decades, with rainfall projected to end the season approximately 15% below the long-term average. Two senior sources at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated on Monday that the strengthening El Nino climate pattern is expected to suppress rainfall further through September, potentially resulting in the lowest seasonal totals since 2009.
The monsoon season, which typically runs from June to mid-October, provides approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall. While the IMD initially projected an 8% deficit in April, the current 15% deficit estimate reflects a period of inconsistent precipitation. Rainfall was 35.4% below average in June, saw a 1% surplus in July, and has returned to a 15% deficit during August.
Weather officials reported that the El Nino phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is likely to intensify in September. According to a senior IMD official, this could lead to a double-digit rainfall deficit for the month of September alone. Most parts of the country, with the exception of some eastern states, are expected to see below-average precipitation during this period.
The scale of the deficit is significant, with the projected 85% of normal rainfall affecting a nation where the monsoon supports the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people engaged in farming. In previous El Nino years, India has faced severe droughts that resulted in crop destruction and forced the government to implement export limits on certain grains. The current projection of a 15% seasonal deficit is nearly double the 8% shortfall the government anticipated earlier this year, signaling a sharper-than-expected decline in water availability.
Looking ahead, the monsoon may begin withdrawing from northwestern India earlier than the typical September 17 start date if no new weather systems develop. The IMD is scheduled to release its official forecast for September at the end of August. These findings will determine whether the government takes further action regarding food security or trade, as the season is expected to conclude across the entire country by mid-October.