A new AARP poll released on Thursday, October 1, 2026, shows Democratic candidate Troy Jackson holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race. The survey found that 50 percent of respondents intended to vote for Jackson, while 47 percent supported Collins. The margin of error for the poll was 3.13 percentage points, placing the candidates in a statistical tie with roughly one month remaining before the midterm elections.
Jackson, a former Maine state Senate president, entered the race in July 2026 after the previous Democratic candidate, Graham Platner, withdrew. Platner’s departure followed allegations of rape, which he has denied. Collins, who has served five terms in the U.S. Senate, is facing a challenge in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won during the 2024 presidential election. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the Maine Senate race as a "toss up."
The poll results arrive as Maine voters report concerns regarding the economy and international policy. In rural Aroostook County, where both candidates were born, residents cited rising costs for heating oil and gasoline, as well as trade tensions with Canada, as primary issues. According to the Maine Department of Energy Resources, heating oil prices in the state have increased by 74 percent over the past year. Additionally, some voters noted that gas prices have reached approximately $5 a gallon, affecting daily transportation and business operations.
The shift in polling numbers highlights the impact of federal policy on local paychecks and bills. Mainers living near the Canadian border, such as Sabrina Haney in Caribou, reported that trade tariffs have reduced cross-border spending and increased the cost of fertilizer for local farmers. A person living in this region would notice these changes in the price of local produce and the availability of Canadian customers in local shops. The "toss up" status of the race suggests that even a small number of undecided voters—measured at 3 percent in the AARP poll—could shift the legislative representation for the entire state.
The election results will also set a precedent for how candidates handle the intersection of national issues, such as the ongoing war in Iran, and local economic needs. Republican county officials noted the war has created political challenges due to fuel price spikes, while Democratic supporters argue the conflict has made life harder for working Mainers. Voters will make their final decision on November 3, 2026. Following the election, the winner will be sworn into the Senate in January 2027 to begin a six-year term.