Kabul, Afghanistan, is projected to potentially run out of water by 2030 as groundwater levels decline and the city's population continues to grow. A report from the nonprofit Prosper Global indicates that the Afghan capital could become the first modern city to reach "day zero," the point at which municipal water supplies are no longer available for large portions of the population. While the 2030 projection marks a city-wide milestone, many residents in neighborhoods like Khair Khana already report dry taps and a total reliance on manual pumps or private delivery.
The shortage results from a combination of infrastructure limitations, rapid urban expansion, and long-term environmental shifts. Experts estimate Kabul's population has grown from under 1 million in 2001 to approximately 6 million today, driven by rural migration and the return of Afghans from neighboring countries. This growth has coincided with six consecutive years of drought and a long-term decline in snowfall in the Hindu Kush Himalaya range, which serves as the primary source for the city's aquifers. Groundwater levels have dropped nearly 100 feet over the last decade, with nearly half of the city's boreholes reportedly dry.
The city currently faces an annual groundwater shortfall of 1.55 billion cubic feet, as water is extracted faster than it can be replenished. While 80% of the city relies on groundwater, only one-fifth of residents have access to piped water. Those without access often wait in hour-long lines at local mosques to use hand pumps or pay private tankers for water. Additionally, Jalal Naser Faqiryar, former director general of the Kabul River Basin, stated that up to 80% of groundwater in large parts of the city is contaminated by sewage or naturally occurring substances like arsenic.
The crisis also impacts international aid and long-term infrastructure development. Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, global aid has largely ceased due to the government's lack of international recognition and its record on human rights. This has stalled major projects, such as the India-funded Shahtoot Dam, which was intended to serve 2 million people. While the Taliban-led Ministry of Energy and Water completed the Shah wa Arous Dam in 2024 to supply 20,000 households, larger solutions remain in early stages or face regional opposition.
What happens next: The Taliban administration stated it intends to proceed with the Shahtoot Dam, though construction has not started and Pakistan has expressed opposition regarding its impact on the Kabul River flow. A proposed 124-mile pipeline to transport water from the Panjshir River to Kabul is currently in the survey and design phase. Experts note that even if these projects secure funding and begin construction, it will take several years to build the necessary treatment plants and distribution networks required to reach individual homes. In the interim, the Ministry of Energy and Water says it is constructing recharge wells and attempting to regulate commercial water use.