Prediction market platform Kalshi announced on Thursday that it will launch new markets allowing users to bet on the outcomes of clinical trials and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory decisions. The initiative is a partnership with AppliedXL, a firm that tracks and predicts drug development data. The pilot program will be limited to late-stage clinical trials, and contracts will only be listed after a trial has completed enrollment.
According to Kalshi, these markets are intended to allow investors to trade based on the prospects of individual drugs rather than the overall financial performance of a pharmaceutical company. The contracts will be tied to specific public milestones, such as primary endpoints listed on ClinicalTrials.gov or official FDA approval letters. AppliedXL will establish the criteria for interpreting these documents before trading begins.
Among the initial offerings are contracts related to FDA decisions for Gilead Sciences' cancer drug anito-cel and Summit Therapeutics' lung cancer drug ivonescimab. Another contract focuses on whether an early Alzheimer's disease treatment from AriBio will meet its late-stage trial goals. To address concerns regarding insider trading, Kalshi stated it will require employment verification for all participants and prohibit任何人 holding material non-public information from trading on the platform.