Upcoming Democratic primary elections in Michigan and Missouri will serve as a test for the party’s internal divide regarding support for Israel. The races feature candidates who have voiced strong criticism of the Israeli government facing off against opponents backed by prominent pro-Israel organizations.
The contests follow a period of shifting sentiment within the Democratic Party. According to an AP-NORC survey from June, nearly 60 percent of Democrats believe the party is too supportive of Israel, an increase from 45 percent in January 2024. This trend has led to recent primary victories for progressive candidates in states like New York and Pennsylvania, who have campaigned on platforms critical of U.S. policy toward Israel.
In Michigan’s Senate primary, the United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has spent $30 million to support Rep. Haley Stevens against challenger Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed has criticized Stevens for her ties to AIPAC, while his own campaign emphasizes a distinction between criticizing the Israeli government and the Jewish faith. In Missouri’s 1st District, AIPAC is spending $2 million to oppose the comeback bid of Cori Bush, who lost her seat to Rep. Wesley Bell in a previous cycle where AIPAC spent $9 million.
The scale of the financial investment is historic, with the United Democracy Project spending $30 million in Michigan alone—more than double its previous record for a single race. For voters in Michigan and Missouri, the immediate change is reflected in the high volume of campaign advertising, with $2 million currently allocated to the Missouri race to influence the selection of a Democratic nominee. This spending translates to roughly $15 per person if distributed across a district of 200,000 voters, illustrating the high cost of entry for these specific primary contests.
The outcome of the Michigan race carries additional weight because the state is proposed to be one of six early contests in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar. A win by a critic of current Israel policy would set a precedent for how future presidential candidates approach foreign policy in battleground states. While the immediate focus is on the Tuesday primaries, the long-term impact will be felt when the next Congress convenes and when the Democratic National Committee finalizes its 2028 primary schedule. Dates for these finalizations were not reported.