A new AARP poll released Thursday shows Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in a close race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat. The survey of likely voters found El-Sayed leading Rogers 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent of respondents remaining undecided.
The two candidates are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) in a contest that is considered a battleground for control of the Senate. El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director, secured the Democratic nomination after a primary contest against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.). Rogers, who previously served in the House of Representatives, is seeking the seat after a 2024 Senate bid in which he was defeated by now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).
The poll, conducted August 9-11 by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, surveyed 877 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. Data showed Rogers holding 96 percent support within his party, compared to 91 percent support for El-Sayed among Democrats. However, El-Sayed maintained a 6-point lead among independent voters. Demographic breakdowns showed El-Sayed leading among women, Black voters, and those aged 18 to 49, while Rogers led among men, white voters, and those over the age of 50.
The scale of the contest is reflected in its status as a top priority for national political parties, with Republicans identifying the seat as one of their primary opportunities to flip a Democratic-held office. While El-Sayed’s platforms include taxing billionaires and corporations, Rogers and his supporters are navigating a landscape shaped by former President Trump’s approval ratings and the memory of Rogers' previous statewide loss in 2024. A separate polling average from Decision Desk HQ currently shows a similar narrow gap, with El-Sayed at 44 percent and Rogers at 42 percent.
Day-to-day, Michigan voters will notice an increase in campaign activity, advertisements, and outreach efforts as both parties attempt to sway the 5 percent of undecided voters identified in the AARP survey. The narrow margins suggest that small shifts in turnout among specific groups, such as the 41-point lead El-Sayed holds with Black voters or the 21-point lead Rogers holds with men over 50, could determine the final result. The election is scheduled for this fall, and the winner will take office when the new Congress convenes in January.