Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers stated on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, that his internal campaign models show him leading Democratic opponent Abdul El-Sayed by approximately seven percent among early-returned ballots. Rogers made the remarks during an appearance on Fox News, though he did not provide specific data to support the claim. The assertion follows several public opinion polls that have shown El-Sayed holding a lead in the race to succeed retiring Senator Gary Peters (D).
The Michigan Senate contest is one of several races that could determine party control of the U.S. Senate, which currently consists of 47 Democrats and two independents who caucus with them. While Democrats are attempting to flip four Republican-held seats, they are also defending seats in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Michigan is considered a battleground state, having been won by Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024, and by Joe Biden in 2020.
Recent polling data from Mitchell Research & Communications, conducted Oct. 26-27 for CBS Detroit, showed El-Sayed with 51% support among likely voters compared to 44% for Rogers. A CNN poll released on Thursday, Oct. 29, also found El-Sayed leading Rogers 49% to 42%. Of 12 polls conducted in October, 11 have shown El-Sayed ahead by margins ranging from 1 to 7 percentage points, while one poll sponsored by a group affiliated with Rogers showed the Republican leading by 2 points.
Voters in Michigan will notice the final impacts of this campaign through ads and community outreach before the general election on Nov. 3, 2026. The candidates are targeting specific demographic groups: Rogers is seeking support from Black and Jewish Democrats, as well as voters aged 65 and older, where he leads 62% to 35% in the Mitchell poll. El-Sayed is focusing on younger voters, Arab Americans, and anti-establishment constituents. These groups may see changes in federal representation regarding the conflict in Gaza and domestic economic policy depending on which candidate’s coalition prevails.
The race has included public disagreements between El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens' fiancé, Jason Turkish, over El-Sayed’s rhetoric regarding Israel. These divisions could affect future Democratic unity in Michigan. Following Rogers' claims on Oct. 31, both campaigns are making a final push for undecided voters—who represented 3% of the electorate in the most recent Mitchell poll. The general election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.