Moderna shares more than doubled on Wednesday following the release of late-stage clinical trial data for a personalized mRNA cancer therapy. The stock surge added approximately $30 billion to the company's market value as the new data indicated the treatment, developed in partnership with Merck, reduced the risk of skin cancer recurrence and spread when used with the immunotherapy drug Keytruda.
The trial results come as Moderna seeks to expand its revenue base beyond its COVID-19 vaccine business. The company is currently working to apply its messenger RNA (mRNA) technology to other areas, including a recently added flu vaccine and experimental shots for Lyme disease and norovirus. Analysts from Leerink Partners increased their 2032 sales projections for the cancer therapy to $1.4 billion, up from a previous estimate of $1.2 billion.
On Wednesday, Moderna shares reached a two-year high of $140.19 with trading volume exceeding 15 times its 50-day average. The news influenced the broader sector, with the Nasdaq biotech index rising 4.4% to a record high. Merck shares also reached an all-time high, climbing 10%, while competitors BioNTech and Novavax saw share increases of 20% and 6%, respectively.
Short sellers, who bet that a stock's price will fall, faced record one-day losses due to the price spike. Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of ORTEX, stated that the price movement could trigger a "squeeze," where short sellers are forced to buy shares to cover their positions, further driving up the price. As of Wednesday, short interest in Moderna represented 13.5% of its free float.
Patients and healthcare providers would notice a change in treatment protocols if the vaccine, known as intismeran, receives final regulatory approval. The late-stage data showed a reduction in cancer recurrence when the vaccine was paired with Merck’s Keytruda, a "blockbuster" drug already widely used in oncology. While the source does not provide a specific date for when the treatment might reach the general public, the transition from late-stage trials to commercial availability typically involves a final review by federal health regulators.
The financial impact extends to the broader biotech market, as evidenced by the record high in the Nasdaq biotech index and double-digit gains for Merck and BioNTech. This movement suggests that positive data for one mRNA therapy can influence the market's perception of the entire sector's future profitability. Next steps include further analysis of the trial data and continued development of Moderna's other pipeline products, such as its vaccines for norovirus and Lyme disease. No specific dates for future trial updates or regulatory filings were reported.