President Bola Tinubu began his re-election campaign on Wednesday, marking the start of the political season ahead of Nigeria’s national elections in January. Tinubu, representing the All Progressives Congress (APC), is seeking a second term while facing challenges from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.
The campaign launch comes as the APC concludes nearly 12 years in power, having first taken office under former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. Tinubu assumed the presidency in 2023 and immediately implemented economic shifts, including the removal of a long-standing fuel subsidy and two devaluations of the national currency, the naira.
While the Tinubu administration stated these reforms have restored economic stability and increased investor interest, critics and opposition figures pointed to a worsening cost-of-living crisis. Official data indicates that Nigeria's public debt rose to 159.35 trillion naira ($117.34 billion) by March 2026, a more than 12-fold increase from late 2015. Additionally, World Bank data shows GDP per capita has fallen from $2,586 in 2015 to $1,224 currently.
The scale of the fiscal challenge is significant for the federal government and taxpayers, with debt-service costs projected to reach $11.6 billion this year. This represents nearly half of the country's total projected revenue and is more than double the $5.15 billion required for debt service in 2025. Citizens will see the impact of these figures in the government's ability to fund public services, as inflation has recently exceeded 33%, the highest level in a generation.
Beyond economics, the election will determine the future of national security policy for a population facing widespread violence. Since Tinubu took office, Amnesty International has recorded at least 10,217 deaths caused by armed groups and 15 mass abductions of schoolchildren. Farmers in the northwest and residents in the southeast continue to face risks from banditry and separatist unrest, which dictates whether agricultural workers can safely produce food for the market. The formal campaign period that began this Wednesday will conclude with the national vote in January.