Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report that a strengthening El Niño event has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the 2026-27 winter season. The climate pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to shift the jet stream south and east across North America. This shift typically favors wetter conditions across the Southern United States while leaving northern regions drier and milder.
Analysis of historical snowfall data from 1959 through 2026 indicates that past El Niño winters have produced varied results across U.S. cities. Locations in the Mid-Atlantic and Southwest often see above-average snow due to energized coastal storm tracks, while the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes typically experience less snowfall. Jeff Berardelli, a meteorologist with WFLA-TV, stated that sea surface warming could reach 4.0 degrees Celsius above normal, potentially breaking a record set in 2015.
Regional impacts are expected to include more frequent fronts and severe weather in California and the Southeast. Tony Fracasso, a meteorologist with the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, noted that while California has historically seen more rain during El Niño over the past 75 years, each event is unique. Forecasters also identified a "wild card" in atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, which could potentially disrupt expected mild conditions in the North with short bursts of cold air.
For households in the affected regions, these weather patterns typically manifest as changes in monthly utility bills, travel conditions, and municipal snow-removal needs starting in late fall and continuing through March 2027. Small-business owners in the winter recreation industry in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes may see fewer snow days, while residents in the Southwest and Southern Rockies could face more frequent disruptions from snow accumulation. In the South and Southeast, the primary concern remains increased weekly rainfall and potential flooding resulting from a stronger subtropical jet stream.
The strengthening of this climate pattern sets a potential precedent for record-breaking Pacific warming, which forecasters say makes typical El Niño effects more likely but not guaranteed for every specific location. The National Weather Service notes that even in generally mild winters, individual massive storms, such as the January 2016 blizzard that dropped 27.5 inches of snow in New York City, can occur. NOAA is scheduled to release its next formal ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on September 10 to provide updated timing and intensity forecasts for the upcoming winter months.