The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a forecast Thursday stating there is a nearly 70% chance that the current El Niño event will become the strongest since records began in 1950. The agency updated its previous projection, which had suggested the event would rank among the largest, due to a rapid increase in intensity and computer models that show a peak in late fall and early winter.
El Niño is a climate cycle involving warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which transfers heat into the atmosphere and shifts global weather patterns. NOAA forecasters expect sea surface temperatures in a benchmark region of the Pacific to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius above average. This measurement is taken over a three-month span to account for short-term variability.
To measure this event, NOAA is utilizing the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), a metric that accounts for the broader warming of tropical oceans caused by long-term climate change. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, stated in a briefing that the event is already at record levels and is expected to increase further. The current event is projected to exceed the intensity of the 1982-1983 Super El Niño, the previous record holder.
The scale of this event is defined by ocean temperatures rising more than 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels in the equatorial Pacific. This shift in heat distribution influences the likelihood of tropical cyclones in the Pacific and contributes to drought conditions in Indonesia and Australia. Because these ocean temperatures are rising against a background of long-term global warming, the event increases the probability of higher global average temperatures.
A record-strong El Niño sets a precedent for how climate cycles interact with overall rising global temperatures, which experts say makes specific local impacts more difficult to predict. The agency noted that while the event is projected to be record-breaking, it does not guarantee that impacts will be worse in every typical location, though it increases the probability of such outcomes. NOAA reports it is virtually certain that 2027 will become the hottest year on record, with the possibility that 2026 will also set a record. The event is expected to reach its peak intensity in late fall and early winter of 2026.