The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026, predicting a season influenced by a near-record strength El Niño. The forecast for December 2026 through February 2027 favors warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions throughout the southern tier and the Eastern Seaboard. Forecasters indicated that El Niño is likely to peak in intensity in December, with an 83% probability of being the strongest event recorded since 1950 during the October-to-December period.
The seasonal pattern is driven by above-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which shift the jet stream southward and eastward. This shift typically results in stormier weather for southern states and drier, milder conditions for the northern U.S. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham noted that while increased precipitation could provide drought relief in the Southwest and Southern Great Plains, it also increases the risk of flash floods and mudslides, particularly on dry soil. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom previously declared a state of emergency in anticipation of potential flooding and high winds.
For the 2026-2027 season, NOAA is implementing upgraded forecasting tools, including the "Probabilistic Precipitation Portal" to show expected ranges of snow and rain. The agency will also introduce "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording in select blizzard and ice storm warnings to identify events of historic severity. While El Niño is a primary factor, meteorologists stated that other variables, such as the polar vortex and long-term warming trends, will also influence specific temperature and snowfall outcomes.
Farmers and small-business owners in the West and Great Plains face varying impacts based on location. Those in drought-afflicted areas of the Southwest may see improved yields due to anticipated rainfall, though agriculture industry representatives noted that record-high fertilizer and fuel prices continue to pressure margins. Meanwhile, drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon, and eastern Washington.
The NOAA report also sets a precedent for how federal agencies communicate extreme weather risks by using more urgent language in warnings for blizzards and ice storms. These "Particularly Dangerous Situation" designations are intended to alert emergency services and the public to threats that could cause unprecedented disruptions. As the season progresses, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will provide monthly updates to the three-month outlook, with the next scheduled release on Nov. 19, 2026. Individuals in affected regions are advised by the National Weather Service to monitor local watches and warnings through official government channels.