The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on Monday, September 14, 2026, that the current El Niño climate cycle has reached "very strong" intensity. The phenomenon’s strength is measured by how much sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean exceed the long-term average. The latest weekly reading reached 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, meeting the threshold for the highest official category, often informally referred to as a "super" El Niño.
El Niño occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to push east toward the Americas. This shift alters the Pacific jet stream, typically leading to wetter conditions in the southern United States and drier, warmer conditions in the northern U.S. and Canada. This year’s event follows a weak La Niña that was in place one year ago. Forecasters noted that the transition to a potent El Niño has occurred at a rapid pace, a trend seen in only a few other years, such as the 1982-1983 event.
According to NOAA’s latest forecast, there is a 75% chance that this El Niño will peak as the strongest since records began in 1950. Forecasters are using a new metric called the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), implemented in February, which subtracts the effects of long-term ocean warming to determine the specific strength of the El Niño cycle. Despite this adjustment, the event is stronger for this date than any previously recorded.
The scale of the phenomenon is reflected in oceanic data showing temperatures 2.0 degrees Celsius above the norm across a region of the equatorial Pacific. For the global population, this cycle adds to existing temperature increases; August 2026 was the hottest on record, and meteorologists suggest this could lead to record-breaking warmth through 2027. In the Atlantic, El Niño-driven wind shear has resulted in a record-long wait for the season's first hurricane, while the East Pacific has already produced 14 storms.
The shift in water temperatures also impacts the marine food web and commercial fishing. By weakening the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water off the Pacific coast, El Niño reduces the phytoplankton that support fish populations. This change can force cold-water species to migrate and bring tropical species, such as yellowtail and albacore tuna, into northern waters. Forecasters expect El Niño to reach its peak strength during the winter months, with the most pronounced weather effects occurring through early 2027. Final peak intensity will be determined by three-month rolling averages updated monthly.