North Dakota has experienced a significant increase in soybean cultivation, with state plantings more than tripling since 2000. This growth, which far exceeds the 17% national increase over the same period, has been driven by high demand from China and a domestic surge in biofuel production. Researchers at North Dakota State University are now working to develop new seed varieties to improve yields that currently lag behind the national average.
The shift toward soybeans in North Dakota has coincided with a decline in wheat demand and the introduction of genetically modified, herbicide-resistant seeds in the late 1990s. Environmental changes have also played a role; according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), temperatures in the state have risen by more than 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900. While warmer temperatures allow for longer growing seasons, they also increase the potential for intense droughts in a state already prone to weather extremes.
Despite the increase in acreage, North Dakota’s soybean yields have remained flat at approximately 35 bushels per acre over the last decade, compared to a national average of nearly 53 bushels. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected a five-year low of 30 bushels per acre for the state in 2026 due to unusually warm and dry conditions. Plant breeder Carrie Dottey is currently conducting research to cross North Dakota seed lines with those from Illinois and Nebraska to create varieties that can withstand dry conditions and short growing seasons.
The scale of this industry shift is reflected in the recent opening of major infrastructure projects. Since 2023, two large-scale processing plants—the Green Bison plant in Spiritwood and the Casselton facility—have begun operations. Together, they have the capacity to process 90 million bushels of soybeans annually, which accounts for nearly half of North Dakota’s projected 2026 harvest. This domestic processing capacity provides a buffer for farmers against international trade volatility, such as the reduction in exports to China resulting from trade disputes during the Trump administration.
For residents and the broader market, the expansion of the soy industry supports North Dakota's position as the second-largest producer of renewable diesel in the U.S. Renewable diesel and biodiesel, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 86% according to the EPA, are increasingly used in farm machinery, trucks, and marine equipment. As researchers continue to work on drought-resistant varieties, the success of these efforts will determine if North Dakota can close the yield gap with Midwest states like Illinois. The USDA and state climatologists will continue to monitor yield data through the end of the 2026 harvest season to assess the impact of recent weather trends.