The number of politically competitive U.S. House seats has decreased significantly over the last year, dropping from 45 to 37 districts nationwide. This decline follows a period of partisan redistricting and reflects a long-term trend of voters living in geographically polarized areas. In North Carolina, the Republican-led legislature redrew the 13th Congressional District, shifting it from a narrow swing seat to one that Donald Trump won by 58% in the previous presidential election.
Legislative map adjustments in North Carolina removed Democratic-leaning voters in Raleigh and added rural counties extending to the Virginia border. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-NC), who won the old district by 9,000 votes in 2022, opted not to run for reelection in the new 13th District after analysis showed no Democrat had won a seat where Trump received 55% or more of the vote. In his place, Rep. Brad Knott (R-NC) won the seat by more than 70,000 votes.
Academics and political advocacy groups cite a combination of partisan gerrymandering—the practice of drawing district lines to favor one party—and "self-sorting," where citizens move to areas with like-minded neighbors. Multiple studies indicate that without partisan redistricting, the House would have approximately double its current number of competitive seats. Currently, only 15% of North Carolina's voting precincts are classified as politically competitive.
For an individual household, the day-to-day impact is a change in how representatives interact with their constituents. Former Rep. Nickel noted that representatives in safe seats often focus more on highly ideological primary voters than on the broader general electorate. In North Carolina, this has resulted in a segregated political map where residents may find themselves in a vastly different political environment by driving just one hour in any direction. The scale of this national trend has reduced the number of "swing seats"—defined as districts won by 5 percentage points or less in the last presidential race—to just 37 out of 435 total House seats.
This trend sets a precedent for how future House majorities are contested, narrowing the national battlefield to a small number of districts while the vast majority of seats remain under single-party control. In the current cycle, Democrats are attempting to challenge Republicans in districts like North Carolina's 13th, where former healthcare lawyer Paul Barringer (D) is running against Rep. Knott. The outcome of these races and the overall control of the House will be determined on Nov. 3. Following the election, winners like Wiley Nickel, who won a primary for district attorney in Wake County, will take office in January.