Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, October 2, 2026, as market participants evaluated reports of increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East and Chinese restrictions on fuel exports. Brent crude increased 29 cents to $102.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 27 cents to $93.14. These movements followed a volatile Thursday session where Brent closed more than $4 higher and WTI increased by over $2.
The price shifts come amid geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the United States is deploying a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East. President Donald Trump stated at the White House that he is weighing resuming strikes on Iran following the U.S. midterm elections, noting that Iran will "either sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer."
Supply signals remained mixed as China started a weeklong holiday on Thursday, October 1, without authorizing major refiners to export fuel to regions other than Hong Kong and Macau for the month of October. Beijing had previously restricted exports in March following the start of conflict between Israel and the U.S. against Iran before relaxing them in July. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reportedly told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to lower global prices, suggesting a U.S. diesel export ban could be implemented if they do not comply.
A source told Reuters that the U.S. has asked the EU to release 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months. EU countries hold nearly 109 million tons of emergency crude and fuel stocks.
The U.S. dollar reached a 17-month high on Friday as borrowing costs rose globally due to fears that higher oil prices will sustain inflation. The potential for a diesel export ban, which President Trump is considering, could affect global supplies.
The next phase for energy markets centers on the conclusion of China's Golden Week holiday on October 7, 2026. Traders are waiting to see if Beijing will resume permit authorizations for refined product exports at that time. Additionally, President Trump indicated that decisions regarding military strikes on Iran would follow the U.S. midterm elections. No specific date for the midterm elections or a deadline for the EU diesel release was reported.