Oil and fuel prices rose on Thursday, October 8, following reports that the White House is considering new military strike options against Iran. Brent crude, the global benchmark, increased 4.4 percent to $104.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 3.91 percent to settle at $92.19. The market activity followed reports from The Atlantic and Axios stating that the Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to finalize preparations for potential combat operations targeting Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear facilities.
The reports of potential strikes come as the United States approaches midterm elections scheduled for November. While President Trump has previously suggested strikes might occur after the vote, he recently told reporters a resumption of operations could happen "maybe before the election." Administration officials told The Atlantic that the preparations reflect a desire to demonstrate U.S. strength and potentially lower gas prices, though proponents of the plan reportedly do not expect the strikes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Military activity in the region has been ongoing since the conflict began on February 28, 2026. The U.S. currently maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically handles 20 percent of the world's oil and gas. Shipping data from MarineTraffic indicates that traffic in the strait averaged fewer than 23 ships per day between September 28 and October 4, a significant decrease from prewar levels of hundreds of ships per day.
White House officials told The Hill that "all options" remain available, describing the U.S. as being in a "strong position" while the Iranian economy faces significant decline. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Thursday that negotiations through intermediaries are continuing regarding a "seven-day plan" peace proposal, with a response expected within a few days. In the broader region, Saudi Arabian forces reported intercepting Houthi ballistic missiles over Riyadh on Thursday, while U.N. officials discussed extending peacekeeping mandates in southern Lebanon.
The scale of the economic impact extends to the global shipping industry and financial markets. The cost to move U.S. oil to Asia has reached $77 million per carrier, compared to a 2025 average of $9.2 million. Market analysts from Bank of America have stated that while Brent crude currently trades near $105, major damage to energy infrastructure could cause prices to reach $150 per barrel. Such a spike would likely lead to further increases in bond yields—which reached 5.35% for 10-year Treasuries on Thursday—directly raising interest rates for consumer loans and mortgages.
The immediate focus for voters and policymakers is the window leading up to the November midterms and the Israeli elections later this month. Residents in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, face direct physical risks as evidenced by the sheltering orders issued in Riyadh on Thursday following missile interceptions. What happens next depends on the White House's final decision regarding the strike options prepared by the Pentagon; while no dates are finalized, an Israeli official noted that the probability of strikes increases significantly after the U.S. midterm elections.