Oklahoma Republicans will vote Tuesday in a primary runoff for governor that features Mike Mazzei and Attorney General Gentner Drummond. The election serves as a measure of President Trump’s influence, as he has endorsed Mazzei in a race where the winner is highly likely to win the general election in November.
The runoff was triggered after the initial June primary, where neither candidate secured a majority of the vote. In that contest, Drummond finished less than one percentage point ahead of Mazzei, with both candidates receiving approximately 25 percent of the total vote in a field of more than six candidates. The seat is currently held by Governor Kevin Stitt, who is vacating the office due to term limits.
Trump’s endorsement of Mazzei, a former state senator and budget secretary, has faced scrutiny following reports that Mazzei’s campaign paid $70,000 to Trump advisor Roger Stone for consulting. Mazzei has denied that the payment influenced the endorsement, stating that the support was based on his policy alignment with the president. Drummond, meanwhile, has drawn Trump’s criticism for filing a lawsuit to block a proposed aluminum smelter in Oklahoma, a project the president supports but which Drummond argues threatens local land and residents.
The race also serves as a test of political influence for Trump, whose endorsed gubernatorial candidates have lost five open primaries so far this cycle in states including Georgia, Iowa, Wyoming, and Minnesota. A survey by pollster Pat McFerron found that while Trump remains popular among Oklahoma Republicans, 56 percent of those surveyed preferred the label "Traditional Republican" over "Trump Republican." The poll also suggested Trump’s support for the smelter project has negatively impacted his approval within the state.
Beyond the gubernatorial office, the results may influence future campaign strategies and the weight of national endorsements in state-level contests. Political analysts noted that while federal-level endorsements often clear fields, gubernatorial races sometimes rely more on personal connections with voters. Following Tuesday's vote, the focus will shift to the general election in November, while a separate special primary runoff for a Senate seat in South Carolina held the same day will provide additional data on current voting trends.
The scale of the political shift is reflected in recent polling showing a divide among the state's Republican voters; 56% identify as "Traditional Republicans" compared to 38% who identify as "Trump Republicans." Voters will notice the immediate impact of this ideological choice in how the state executive handles industrial projects and its relationship with federal leadership. A Mazzei victory would signal a continuation of Trump-aligned policy, while a Drummond victory would affirm a candidate who has actively litigated against a Trump-backed industrial project.
This election serves as a final gauge of national political influence ahead of the general election, following five previous instances this cycle where Trump-backed gubernatorial candidates lost their primaries in Georgia, Iowa, Wyoming, and Minnesota. The precedent set here will likely dictate how future candidates in red states balance national endorsements against local interests. What happens next is the final tallying of votes following the Tuesday deadline, which will determine the Republican nominee for the November general election.