OPEC+ agreed to maintain current oil production targets for November during a meeting on Sunday, October 4, 2026. The decision, made by seven core members of the producer group, aligns with market expectations that further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year, though sources say significant changes to output levels are improbable until 2027. The participating core members include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
The decision follows months of volatility in the energy market linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began in late February 2026. This conflict has caused export disruptions for Gulf producers, with exports recently fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels. Although OPEC+ has officially raised output targets throughout much of 2026, these increases have largely remained on paper due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
According to OPEC data, the seven core members produced 25 million barrels per day in August. While this represented an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from July, it remained approximately 5 million barrels per day below the production levels recorded in February before the start of the war. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that while flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising, output remains well below quotas, contributing to a tight oil market.
The decision affects global energy consumers who continue to face elevated fuel costs. Despite a price drop on Friday, October 2, following a decision by European leaders to release diesel reserves at the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, Brent crude remains priced above $100 per barrel. This is higher than the approximately $73 per barrel price seen before the conflict began in February.
The group is currently pumping 5 million barrels per day less than pre-war levels. The situation is further complicated by approximately 2 million barrels per day in existing production cuts that remain in place for most members. Because the war has created uncertainty regarding the future production potential of member nations, OPEC+ has delayed a capacity review.
This delay affects how production quotas will be distributed among member states for 2027. Without the results of this review, sources indicate that actual changes to output levels are unlikely to be implemented before 2027. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which reviews market conditions but does not set policy, also met on Sunday. The seven core members are scheduled to hold their next meeting on November 1.