Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, stated in a leaked audio recording that the war in Iran and high fuel prices are negatively affecting his campaign. The audio, shared by Axios on Wednesday, October 7, captures Paxton speaking to donors and lobbyists at a closed-door fundraiser in Washington, D.C. He identified diesel prices exceeding $6 per gallon as the primary factor driving up food costs and influencing his polling numbers.
The recording is the third leaked clip from the same private event to circulate in recent weeks. Previous audio published by The New York Times and Politico featured Paxton stating that the Republican midterm convention in Dallas last month had also lowered his support levels. During the event, Paxton acknowledged he has no control over the war or gas prices, describing these federal factors as uncontrollable elements of the race.
According to polling averages from Decision Desk HQ, Paxton currently trails his Democratic opponent, State Rep. James Talarico, by 2 percentage points. The Cook Political Report has categorized the race as a toss-up. Paxton won the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R). In response to the leak, a Paxton campaign spokesperson stated that the remarks were a "non-story" and that Paxton was simply acknowledging the economic difficulties Texans face at the pump and grocery store.
The contest is significant for its impact on federal policy regarding tax credits and housing costs. Paxton has proposed an economic plan that includes doubling the child tax credit and creating new tax write-offs for healthcare, housing, and family-related expenses. If elected, he would be in a position to introduce this legislation, which would change the tax liability and available benefits for millions of families nationwide. Conversely, his opponent, James Talarico, represents a shift in Texas politics that could alter the state’s historical voting patterns and legislative priorities in Washington.
What happens next: The campaign continues as President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in San Antonio on Wednesday evening, October 7, to support Paxton and other Republican candidates. This marks Trump’s third visit to Texas within a month. Voters will decide the winner of the Senate seat during the general election on November 3, 2026. Until that date, candidates will continue to campaign on issues of affordability, immigration, and foreign policy as they attempt to secure a majority in the closely contested race.