Physicians and public health experts are preparing for the annual increase in respiratory viruses as the fall and winter seasons approach. Medical professionals expect the circulation of influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to rise through the cooler months, typically beginning in September or October and lasting until March or April.
Dr. S. Wesley Long, medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist Hospital, noted that flu season often peaks between December and January. While the previous two flu seasons were reported as the worst in over 20 years, experts look to the southern hemisphere’s winter for early indicators. Dr. Long stated that the recent southern hemisphere season was "fairly typical." Dr. Morgan Katz of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine added that the season in that region was "lighter and later" than the 2025-26 period.
Public health data shows that flu vaccination rates in children have declined since the pandemic, and overall rates remain below the 70% target set by experts. Beyond the flu, COVID-19 cases often increase during the winter as indoor gatherings become more frequent and ventilation decreases, though the virus circulates year-round. RSV activity is currently reported as low, but it typically follows a seasonal pattern similar to the flu, beginning in October and peaking in January.
Individuals will notice the impact through the availability of seasonal vaccines and the potential for increased illness. Those seeking protection can access flu and COVID-19 shots, while specific RSV vaccines are now available for adults over 75, pregnant people, and adults aged 50 to 74 with specific risk factors. Physicians recommend testing for flu and COVID-19 when symptoms appear, as antiviral treatments are available for these specific infections but not for the common cold.
The broader healthcare system faces the knock-on effect of increased patient loads during the winter peak, which can strain hospital resources if infection rates are high. To manage this, doctors continue to advise standard hygiene practices and social distancing when symptomatic. As the season progresses, the next significant markers will be the reported case counts in December and January, which traditionally represent the height of viral activity and hospitalizations.