A poll released in July 2026 indicates that self-identified MAGA supporters of President Donald Trump are more likely to continue supporting Republican candidates facing serious scandals compared to other voting blocs. The survey, conducted by Public First for POLITICO, measured voter loyalty across 12 hypothetical scenarios, including criminal convictions and accusations of misconduct. According to the data, majorities of MAGA voters would remain committed to a GOP nominee even when faced with allegations of sexual assault, domestic violence, or the sharing of classified information.
The poll results come amid a 2026 midterm election cycle where several candidates have faced personal or legal controversies. In Texas, Republicans have maintained support for Attorney General Ken Paxton, while in Arizona, voters recently nominated former sheriff Mark Lamb for a House seat despite allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse of power, which Lamb denies. Conversely, in Maine, Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner withdrew from his race following a sexual assault allegation, which he also denies, after previously staying in the race despite reports regarding past social media posts and a controversial tattoo.
According to the survey data, 66% of MAGA Trump voters would continue to back a GOP candidate accused of sexual assault, which is 13 percentage points higher than Trump's 2024 voting base as a whole. In comparison, 40% of voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 said they would stick by a Democratic candidate facing the same accusation. Regarding domestic violence allegations, 72% of MAGA voters said they would remain loyal to the candidate, compared to 39% of Harris voters. The poll also found that 76% of MAGA voters would support a candidate with a prior DUI conviction and 57% would support one accused of sharing classified information with a foreign government.
The impact is most visible in the day-to-day operations of political campaigns and party leadership. Voters may notice that candidates who would have previously been pressured to resign or withdraw now remain on the ballot through the general election. For example, the poll found that while 71% of Republicans believe a Democratic candidate accused of sexual assault should drop out, only 52% believe a Republican candidate should do the same for the identical accusation. This 19-percentage-point gap suggests that voters increasingly view scandal through a partisan lens, which can affect the type of representation a district receives and the level of scrutiny applied to officials in office.
Looking ahead, this trend sets a precedent for how future allegations will be handled by party organizations and primary voters. The poll suggests that the "Queensberry rules" of past political decorum have been replaced by a more combative environment where partisan loyalty outweighs personal controversy. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the persistence of these voting patterns will determine whether candidates facing active investigations or lawsuits can successfully win and hold federal or state offices. The next major indicators of this dynamic will be the final election results for embattled candidates in Texas and Arizona this November.
The POLITICO Poll was conducted by Public First from July 12 to July 15, 2026. It surveyed 2,061 U.S. adults online with an overall margin of error of ±2.16 percentage points. Subgroups within the poll, such as MAGA-identified voters or Harris voters, carry higher margins of error. According to Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, scandal has become "one ingredient among many in a partisan calculation" rather than a definitive factor for most modern voters.